Estimating the Singularity
We can't predict the future. But we can engineer for it.
> when does AGI land?
> nobody knows
> anyone selling a date is selling something
> "so we wait for certainty"
> waiting isn't an option, the worst case doesn't wait
> the move is to build on best estimates and design for the worst case
> winning means surviving the worst case
> so this site runs two live trackers
> milestones, capability triggers, and acceleration in one rolling number
> accurate? probably not. useful? yes.
> the point is a shared baseline for the only conversation that matters
> a dashboard for the end of the world as we know it
> plan for the worst, hope for the best, ship for both
Appendix · Further Signal
Start with the worst case. Hope for the best. Build for both.
Newsletter
Subscribe to Surf the Singularity
Dispatches from the edge of the intelligence explosion. Where thermodynamics meets theology.
Join the conversation at the end of the world as we know it.